Boshijijin Wei Fengchun before the position should not be too radical – fund channel-shuyue

Boshijijin Wei Fengchun: before the position should not be too radical – fund channel Spring Festival is coming, investors are concerned about the problem in cash or stock last year, after comprehensive analysis, suggestions before the position should be controlled, hold new year. Last week, major overseas stock indexes did not fall, driven mainly by crude oil prices below the expected reduction in production. A shares in addition to the Shanghai Stock Index 50, the main index decline in more than 5%, small, medium and high stock index and light asset decline. Stocks, coal, food and beverage declined slightly in banks and related companies. The bond market, the central bank jillion reverse repurchase guide money market interest rates down, but bond yields are generally closed. The RMB index fell 0.79% this week, the dollar index unchanged, foreign exchange pressure is weaker than at the beginning of the month. A shares financing balance reduced sharply to September 2015 low. From the technical indicators, the market trends remain extremely empty state, from the historical point of view, the possibility of further transfer is smaller. The overall trend of each index is very small. Coal, animal husbandry and fishery, building materials and other relatively strong. In the style of individual stock, the main board stock has obvious differentiation in momentum and value factor, and the scale factor has less influence; the stock market stock has obvious differentiation only on the momentum factor. On the fundamentals, overseas, the Fed’s 28 day meeting doves is not as expected, the Japanese central bank to carry out excess deposit reserve negative interest rates, in general, to enhance the risk appetite limited. On the domestic side, the daily consumption of large power generation group continued to double-digit decline on Saturday, the real estate sales continued to be better, the new plate to brisk performance. 2015 the general public revenue and expenditure account for GDP of 3.5%, a record high; loose fiscal policy is expected to continue until 2016. Last week, the "No.1 Document" was published in 2016, which suggested that the adjustment of agricultural varieties and the adjustment of the price system of agricultural products should be concerned. Considering the situation of public opinion, the factors that are most likely to affect the A shares at the macro level in the short term are still the RMB exchange rate. As the consumption of foreign exchange reserves is too fast, the stance of maintaining the RMB exchange rate has indeed gradually affected the implementation of the domestic monetary policy, in this regard, the bond market has begun to appear a certain pressure. Nevertheless, in rhythm, the release of the negative effects of the exchange rate on the market is a process that lasts for months or even six months. The longer the time, the more prone to variables, whether in contrast to the fundamentals of economic and monetary policy in China and the United States, or the market’s understanding of the exchange rate issues and attitudes. Therefore, it is not the best choice to keep the low position for a long time with the logic of exchange rate. Currently, since the start of the market a huge decline, negative emotions also have no small release. Generally speaking, the market is still stable in the week before the spring festival. But looking forward to the week after the Spring Festival market, January foreign exchange reserve data has been out of great probability, the impact on the market needs to be fully considered, should not be too radical before the holiday position. On the topic, it is suggested to pay close attention to supply side reform. If the new government’s industrial policy of "innovation", so the policy changes this year is "innovation", rather than "new". It is recommended to maintain neutral positions next week.

博时基金魏凤春:节前仓位不应太过激进-基金频道   春节快到了,投资者关注的问题在持币还是持股过年,综合分析下来,建议在节前仓位应有所控制,持币过年。   上周海外主要股指无一下跌,主要驱动在减产预期下上行的原油价格。A股除上证50指外,主要指数跌幅均在5%以上,中小盘、中高股指和轻资产跌幅较大。银行、 相关公司股票走势 煤炭、食品饮料跌幅最小。债市方面,央行巨量逆回购引导货币市场利率下行,但债券收益率仍普遍收高。人民币指数本周下跌0.79%,美元指数不变,外汇冲销压力弱于月初。   A股融资余额大幅减少至2015年9月的低位。从技术指标看,市场趋势维持极度偏空状态,从历史看,进一步转空可能性较小。各个指数的趋势强弱总体差异很小。煤炭、农林牧渔、建材等较强势。个股风格上,主板股票在动量和价值因子上有较明显分化,规模因子影响较小;创业板股票只有动量因子上有较明显的分化。   基本面上,海外方面,联储28日会议鸽派程度不及预期,日本央行对超额存款准备金执行负利率,总的来讲对风险偏好提升助力有限。国内方面,上周六大发电集团日均耗煤量继续双位数下跌,房地产销量则持续较佳,新盘去化表现亮眼。2015一般公共财政收支差额占GDP比例为3.5%,创历史新高;宽松的财政政策有望延续到2016年。上周公布了2016年的“一号文件”,建议关注在农业品种调整、农产品价格形成制度上的调整。   综合考虑舆情的情况,短期在宏观层面最容易影响A股的因素,依然是人民币汇率。由于外汇储备的消耗速度过快,维持人民币汇率的立场已经的确在逐渐影响国内货币政策的执行,这方面在债市已经开始出现一定的压力。   虽然如此,但在节奏上,还是要看到汇率对市场负面影响的释放是一个持续数月甚至半年的过程。时间越长越容易出现变数,无论是中美经济和货币政策基本面的比照上,还是市场对汇率问题的认知和态度上。因此,用汇率的逻辑长期保持低仓位并非最佳选择。就当前而言,开年以来市场跌幅巨大,负面情绪也有了不小的释放。总的来讲市场在春节前一周企稳的概率仍较大。但是展望到春节之后一周的市场,1月外汇储备数据大概率已经出来,对市场的冲击则需要充分考虑,在节前仓位不应太过激进。   在主题上,建议持续关注供给侧改革。若将新一届政府的产业政策归纳为“推陈出新”,那么今年的政策变化主要是“推陈”,而非“出新”。   建议在下周保持中性仓位,但到周四、周五建议做一些避险的考虑。看好的行业包括轻工制造、计算机、电子元器件、煤炭和钢铁。相关的主题文章: